Blackmoor Population

[Havard]

What would be a rough estimation of the total population of King Uther's realm? (ca 1030 NC)

-Havard

[Havard]

Actually Cthulhudrew has done this calculation for me estimating the population to be around:

130.000 (Mostly humans, some halflings) plus about 9000 elves and 16.000 dwarves.

Looking at the human population alone,

how many of these 130.000 could reasonably be considered Clerics and Magic-Users (Sorcerers / Wizards etc)?

-Havard

[Havard]

Interestingly, ZGG material estimates Blackmoor population to be significantly lower. Only 70.000.

Based on Cthulhudrew's figures (130.000) I would estimate the following number of spellcasters:
Clerics: ca 500
Wizards: ca 500
Sorcerers: ca 500
The above accounts for the human population only. Elves and other demihumans are in addition to this. The vast majority of these spellcasters will be in the levels 1-3 range.


Taking a look at Wizardly organizations I am thinking the following numbers:

The Wizards Cabal: ca 350 Wizards + 200 Arcane Warriors + 1000 Soldiers
The Eldritch Underground: ca 500 Sorcerers (+ more Sorcerers, Wizards and Wokani from outside Blackmoor's Borders)
Ordo Elementalis: ca 50 Wizards + 200 Elven Wizards.
Scroll & Blade: 50 Wizards + 20 Arcane Warriors + 1000 Soldiers
Quincke's Brigade 50 Wizards.

Thoughts on these numbers?

-Havard

[aldarron]

Alex, when working on Acks, worked out these figures using the data provided in the section on the third coot invasion in the FFC...

"It wasn’t initially clear to me whether "men" in FFC means "adult men" or "people". However, the rules state that a a Fyrd of 450 men is available per 3,000 (p7, p8, p9). If "men" means "adult men" then the Fyrd is 15% of the adult men. If "men" means "people", and we assume 1 able-bodied man per 5 people (the historical norm), then 3,000 people would yield 600 men and the Fyrd of 450 would represent 75% of the adult men. Neither Greece nor Rome ever managed to have more than 33% of their adult men under arms, even during the Punic Wars, so we have to conclude that a 75% military participation ratio is unlikely to be what FFC intends. Therefore I have to conclude that "men" means "adult men". Therefore, 3,000 men in FFC is comparable to 3,000 families in ACKS, which have 1 adult man per family.

FFC therefore provides that 3,000 families yields 500gp per month, or 1/6gp per family....

Turning back to Blackmoor itself, we know from page 4 that Blackmoor earns 35,000gp per 4 months. We also know (from the listings for Maus, Duchy of Ten, Egg of Coot, etc.) that the income values are primarily based on the number of peasants. So how many peasants would Blackmoor need to yield 8,750gp per month? They would need 52,500 peasant families (1/6th gp per family). 52,500 families is peasants. 262,500 peasants. "

I think Cthuludrew is fairly close to the mark except I think there are about double the numbers of dwarves and elves.


FFC also gives Blackmoor as 4, 346 sq mi. which is about the size of connecticut. a lot depends on where you draw the borders.

[Rafael]

130.000 was more or less the population of medieval Denmark before the Black Death.

Good number.

[Havard]

I think Aldarron has a very good point that this depends on what you consider the extent of the Kingdom of Blackmoor. The comparison to Denmark is interesting because, at least according to Cthulhudrew's figures, Blackmoor is significantly larger than mainland Denmark. Again relyig on Cthulhudrew's estimate that Blackmoor covers an area of "Approx. 51,750 sq.mi." the populations seem very low, especially if you look at this guide for determining medieval populations: http://www222.pair.com/sjohn/blueroom/demog.htm

-Havard

[aldarron]

I think Aldarron has a very good point that this depends on what you consider the extent of the Kingdom of Blackmoor. The comparison to Denmark is interesting because, at least according to Cthulhudrew's figures, Blackmoor is significantly larger than mainland Denmark. Again relyig on Cthulhudrew's estimate that Blackmoor covers an area of "Approx. 51,750 sq.mi." the populations seem very low, especially if you look at this guide for determining medieval populations: http://www222.pair.com/sjohn/blueroom/demog.htm

-Havard

Havard that site is a great find. I'd limit some of the stuff there to only certain kinds of places but the mechant/SV chart is an awesome resource.

One of the things from that site that's only relevant to certain kinds of places is the pop density info.

I found that 51,750 sq mi figure curios too. I don't know how he derived it, so I tried figuring out the sq mi from scratch. Looking at the FFC hex map and doing an extremely rough counting of 10 mile hexes yeilds something in the neighborhood of 20 x 30 hexes for the area east of the misaugua and north of the root rivers. That's 600 hexes times 86.6 square miles per hex. That yields 51,960 square mile.

Bugger all if that aint close. I didn't try to account for water areas but parts of the land extend beyond what I counted so it comes close to balancing out.

I'm sure Cthuldrews figure is a more careful counting than mine.

The d20 maps appear to be on exactly the same scale. I'm sure Dave L. has this all figured out for sure.

So, if you go with Alex’s 262,500 figure you get a pop density of 5.07 persons per square mile. That is actually a very reasonable figure for a northern country with long winters (October to April) and a primarily hay based agriculture. (FFC specifies that a domesticated form of bison (i.e. cows) are the agricultural base. Garbage pits of despair also mention sheep.)

Similarly low and even lower population densities are estimated for similar places, such as medieval Norway,

http://books.google.com/books?id=PWP6LX ... ay&f=false

Much the same can be said of finland, Iceland, and so forth, so upon reflection, Alex’s figure, is probably about correct with that number being spread between country , towns and cities.

[Havard]

Havard that site is a great find. I'd limit some of the stuff there to only certain kinds of places but the mechant/SV chart is an awesome resource.

One of the things from that site that's only relevant to certain kinds of places is the pop density info.

I found that 51,750 sq mi figure curios too. I don't know how he derived it, so I tried figuring out the sq mi from scratch. Looking at the FFC hex map and doing an extremely rough counting of 10 mile hexes yeilds something in the neighborhood of 20 x 30 hexes for the area east of the misaugua and north of the root rivers. That's 600 hexes times 86.6 square miles per hex. That yields 51,960 square mile.

Bugger all if that aint close. I didn't try to account for water areas but parts of the land extend beyond what I counted so it comes close to balancing out.

I'm sure Cthuldrews figure is a more careful counting than mine.

The d20 maps appear to be on exactly the same scale. I'm sure Dave L. has this all figured out for sure.

Excellent! I was going to do the maths from scratch myself, but I agree with you that this makes sense.

So, if you go with Alex’s 262,500 figure you get a pop density of 5.07 persons per square mile. That is actually a very reasonable figure for a northern country with long winters (October to April) and a primarily hay based agriculture. (FFC specifies that a domesticated form of bison (i.e. cows) are the agricultural base. Garbage pits of despair also mention sheep.)

Similarly low and even lower population densities are estimated for similar places, such as medieval Norway,

http://books.google.com/books?id=PWP6LX ... ay&f=false

Much the same can be said of finland, Iceland, and so forth, so upon reflection, Alex’s figure, is probably about correct with that number being spread between country , towns and cities.

I'm not sure Norway is a good comparison here. Keep in mind that about 80% of Norways area is uninhabitable. S. John Ross who wrote the article I linked above suggests reasonable population to be between 30 and 120 people per square mile. While I would agree that Blackmoor should be on the low end of the scale, 5 people sounds unreasonably low.

Reasons for a low population could be the following:

• Cimate, as you mention, though I dont know if it should be much worse than Scottland.
  
• Wars, wars, and more wars: This is a big one. Although we also know there is migration to the North from the Thonian Empire.
  
• Swamps: Such large parts of the kingdom are wetlands. It is hard to say how inhabitable these swamps are, yet there are clearly settlements found within the swamplands.

In spite of these factors, I think the current population numbers need to be revisited.

-Havard

[aldarron]

I'm not sure Norway is a good comparison here. Keep in mind that about 80% of Norways area is uninhabitable. S. John Ross who wrote the article I linked above suggests reasonable population to be between 30 and 120 people per square mile. While I would agree that Blackmoor should be on the low end of the scale, 5 people sounds unreasonably low.

Reasons for a low population could be the following:

• Cimate, as you mention, though I dont know if it should be much worse than Scottland.
  
• Wars, wars, and more wars: This is a big one. Although we also know there is migration to the North from the Thonian Empire.
  
• Swamps: Such large parts of the kingdom are wetlands. It is hard to say how inhabitable these swamps are, yet there are clearly settlements found within the swamplands.

In spite of these factors, I think the current population numbers need to be revisited.

-Havard

S. John Ross' pop figures are fine for a lowland France type place, but are less relevant as you move to other places, like switzerland, frex. 30 per square mile is far to high of a low for less than ideal locations in the medieval period. Even today I'm pretty sure Finland has a pop density of 16 per sq mile in rural areas and I know there are three counties here in new york state that have pop densities of less than 30. Hamilton county has a population density of less than 3 persons per square mile because it is the Adirondak mountans park.
For another example, assuming Rafe is right about 130,000 being the population of medieval Denmark, that yeilds a pop Density for Denmark of about 8 persons per square mile. Denmark may well be a better comparison to Blackmoor than Norway, I should guess.

Anyway, the pop densities vary with location, so the average is just that - an average. FFC has 20% of blackmoor as arable land, 60% forests, 20% swamps. If, using Alex's figure, you assume 3/4 of the population live in the arable part that's 196,875 people on 10350 square miles. That's a population density in the habited areas of 19 persons per square mile. These numbers can be played with, but it seems okay to me, particularly with the wars and such you mentioned.

Having said that, I completely agree that it is an area that could benefit from a closer look.